China Becomes Net Debt Collector in Africa as Infrastructure Lending Declines

China has shifted from being a major source of infrastructure financing for Africa to receiving more in debt repayments than it provides through new lending. This reflects a significant change in the financial relationship between Beijing and African governments.

An analysis by Oxford Economics Africa, drawing on data from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center and other sources, shows that Chinese loan commitments to Africa have declined substantially from their previous highs.

Chinese lending fell from a peak of $28.8 billion in 2016 to $2.1 billion in 2024, the lowest annual level in nearly two decades. Despite the decline, China remains Africa’s largest bilateral creditor.

Financial Flows Shift Toward Debt Repayment

The changing relationship is particularly visible in the direction of financial flows between China and Africa.

According to the analysis, citing data from the ONE Campaign, African countries received about $30.4 billion in net financing from China between 2015 and 2019. Between 2020 and 2024, the flow reversed, with Africa recording about $22.1 billion in net outflows to China. 

The shift represents a swing of approximately $52.5 billion between the two periods. Separate reporting on the underlying data similarly found that repayments have highly exceeded new Chinese financing.

Oxford Economics Africa economist Christian Franken characterized the change as a move toward managing China’s existing portfolio of loans rather than rapidly expanding it. 

New Financing Falls as Debt Service Rises

Data compiled by the Development Finance Observatory provides another indication of the changing lending environment.

Chinese financing to low-income and lower-middle-income African countries declined from $26.5 billion in 2018 to $5.1 billion in 2024. Over the same period, debt-service payments increased from $10.6 billion to $17.4 billion and rose further to $25.2 billion in 2025.

The figures reflect the maturation of loans made during a period when Chinese policy banks financed large infrastructure projects across the continent.

Debt Restructuring Varies Across Africa

The transition is playing out differently across individual African economies.

Zambia has made progress restructuring its debt, while Angola has substantially reduced its oil-backed obligations to China. Angola’s oil-backed debt fell from $16.3 billion in 2020 to $6.8 billion by mid-2026, according to the analysis.

In Ethiopia, however, the debt restructuring process remains stalled.

China’s position as Africa’s largest bilateral creditor also means it continues to play an important role in debt restructuring efforts, including those conducted through the G20 Common Framework.

China Shifts Toward Smaller Projects

The reduction in lending does not necessarily represent a Chinese withdrawal from Africa.

Instead, Beijing has moved toward a “small and beautiful” financing strategy. The approach places greater emphasis on smaller and more selective investments rather than the large infrastructure loans that characterized earlier Chinese engagement.

Areas receiving attention include digital infrastructure, renewable energy, and industrial estates, with some financing increasingly flowing through regional development banks. The analysis also suggests that African governments may encounter Chinese financing offered on less concessional terms, with greater emphasis placed on the commercial viability of projects.

Commercial Considerations Shape Lending

Chinese policy banks also operate differently from traditional bilateral development lenders.

According to Yufan Huang of the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins SAIS, only about 17% of Chinese lending to Africa between 2000 and 2021, including zero-interest loans and preferential export buyer’s credits, was directly coordinated through the Chinese government.

Institutions such as the Export-Import Bank of China and China Development Bank are expected to consider commercial returns even while supporting broader government objectives.

Defaults in countries including Zambia and Ethiopia have contributed to greater caution among Chinese lenders. China’s Ministry of Finance has also resisted compensating state-owned lenders for losses because of concerns about creating moral hazard, according to Huang.

A Changing China-Africa Financing Relationship

China remains an important source of financing and investment across Africa, but the structure of that relationship is evolving.

Rather than the large-scale infrastructure lending that defined much of the previous decade, current trends point toward debt management, selective investment, and greater commercial discipline.

With existing loans reaching maturity, debt repayment is becoming a larger part of China-Africa financial relations, alongside a shift toward smaller investments.